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Series 66 · Cheat Sheet

Economic Factors & Business Information

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Series 66 CHEAT SHEET: Economic Factors & Business Information

Financial Ratios & Valuation

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Time Value of Money

Present Value (PV): Discount future cash flows to today's dollars using discount rate Future Value (FV): What current $ becomes after compounding at given rate Key Insight: $ today > $ tomorrow (can invest and earn returns)

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Economic Cycles & Indicators

Business Cycle Phases

ExpansionPeakContraction/RecessionTrough → repeat

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Indicator Types

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TEST TIP: Leading indicators signal recessions *before* they're official; lagging confirm them after.

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Interest Rates & Yield Curve

Federal Reserve

  • FOMC sets federal funds rate (overnight bank lending rate)
  • Rising rates → bonds fall, growth stocks underperform
  • Falling rates → bonds rise, equities rally

Yield Curve Shapes

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Real vs. Nominal Rates (Fisher Effect)

Real Rate ≈ Nominal Rate − Inflation Rate
  • Rising inflation = bond enemy (erodes purchasing power)
  • *Example:* 5% yield, 3% inflation = ~2% real return

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Duration & Rate Management

Duration: Bond sensitivity to rate changes

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Quick Decision Rules

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Commonly Confused Pairs

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RatioFormulaWhat It Tells YouExam Cue
P/EStock Price ÷ EPSValuation; growth expectationsHigh P/E = growth stock; Low P/E = value or distress
P/BStock Price ÷ Book Value/ShareMarket vs. accounting value<1.0 = potentially undervalued or distressed
D/ETotal Debt ÷ Total EquityFinancial leverage & riskHigher = more risk; utilities/telecom higher than tech
ROENet Income ÷ Shareholders' EquityManagement efficiencyHigher = more profitable; measure of capital effectiveness
PhaseLeading SectorsDefensive Sectors
ExpansionIndustrials, Consumer Discretionary, Tech
ContractionUtilities, Consumer Staples, Healthcare
TypeCharacteristicsExam UseExamples
LeadingChange *before* economyPredict future activityStock prices, building permits, consumer confidence, LEI
LaggingChange *after* trends confirmConfirm trends after factUnemployment, interest rates, business loan volumes
ShapeDefinitionSignal
Normal (Upward)Long yields > short yieldsEconomic growth expected
InvertedShort yields > long yieldsRecession predictor (6–18 mo lag)
FlatYields similar across maturitiesUncertainty about economy
Rate EnvironmentActionWhy
Rising RatesShorten durationReduce price decline risk; move to shorter maturities
Falling RatesExtend durationCapture price appreciation; move to longer maturities
SituationAnswer
Client asks how to protect bond portfolio from rising ratesShorten duration
Question asks what signals recession *before* it's officialLeading indicators (stocks, permits, confidence)
P/E is high relative to peersGrowth stock or market expects strong earnings ahead
P/B is <1.0Potentially undervalued OR company/sector in distress
Short-term yields > long-term yieldsInverted curve = recession warning
Inflation rising, holding fixed-income bondsReal return eroding; purchasing power declining
Concept AConcept BDifference
Leading indicatorLagging indicatorLeading *predicts*; lagging *confirms*
Normal yield curveInverted yield curveNormal = growth expected; inverted = recession risk
Nominal rateReal rateNominal = quoted; real = adjusted for inflation
Current yieldYTMCurrent = coupon ÷ price (ignores maturity); YTM includes all cash flows to maturity
D/E highROE highD/E high = risky leverage; ROE high = efficient management
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High-Yield Formulas for Exam

`` P/E Ratio = Market Price ÷ Earnings Per Share P/B Ratio = Market Price ÷ Book Value Per Share D/E Ratio = Total Debt ÷ Total Equity ROE = Net Income ÷ Shareholders' Equity Real Rate ≈ Nominal Rate − Inflation Current Yield = Annual Coupon ÷ Market Price ``

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Key Takeaways for Test

✓ Use financial ratios to assess company valuation and health ✓ Leading indicators (LEI) predict recessions; lagging confirm them ✓ Inverted yield curve = most reliable recession signal ✓ Rising rates → shorten duration; falling rates → extend duration ✓ Inflation erodes real returns on fixed income ✓ P/E, P/B, D/E, ROE are the four core equity analysis ratios

Aligned to the NASAA Series 66 content outline.

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